Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Here We Go Again......

Update--6:33 p.m.: Three hours into a tornado watch and not even a hint of a thunderstorm developing. The atmosphere remained capped, which is the problem that has plagued almost every other potential severe weather outbreak this season. The cap could still break, and if it does, storms will rapidly develop and become severe. Another watch-and-wait situation.

Morning entry: There is a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms today. An area of low pressure is forecast to move along a warm front that is currently situated across the region, and this should be the focus for storms later this afternoon. Currently, storms are expected to develop around mid-afternoon, probably across southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa, and then move eastward into Wisconsin. Wind shear is expected to be quite significant, so supercell thunderstorms appear likely, enhancing the threat for tornadoes. Large hail and strong winds are also possible. Overall, the best threat time appears to be between 3 and 10 p.m.

However....... I have lost count of the number of times I have heard this same tune this year. It seems that every time the conditions seem to have come together for a major outbreak, everything fizzles out. Hard to say if the same thing will happen today. The temperature isn't rising very fast this morning thanks to some clouds, which could limit the instability later this afternoon. It is hard to ignore the strong ingredients in place that would support some dangerous storms, and it seems as if these ingredients will all come together later today.


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