Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Rain & Storms

First post in a long time, but it's worth it.

An unusually strong October storm system is expected to bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to the area starting later today. Rainfall totals may exceed an inch in some places through tomorrow morning. Thursday could be a very active day. The dry slot is expected to rotate northward into Wisconsin tomorrow morning, shutting off the rain. This may allow for some partial clearing and temperatures warming into the 60s. If this happens, thunderstorms will re-develop along the cold front by late morning or early afternoon. While instability isn't expected to be too high, wind shear in the atmosphere will be very strong, so any storms that develop could certainly become severe, and there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over southwestern Wisconsin tomorrow. The greater threat of severe weather is to our south and east. About the southeast one-quarter of Wisconsin is under a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow, including Madison and Milwaukee. The moderate risk also covers parts of lower Michigan and Illinois, and all of Indiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible. Ultimately, the speed of the system, amount of drying that occurs in the morning, and the position of the cold front will all determine where the best chances of severe weather will be. The Storm Prediction Center said in its morning outlook that a widespread, possibly significant severe weather event appears increasingly likely somewhere in the region tomorrow.



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