Thursday, November 09, 2006


Imagine my surprise when I woke up this morning to discover there was a winter storm watch in effect for tomorrow. Last night the forecast was for an inch or two of snow on Friday, and this morning it now calls for three to eight inches. Such snowfall totals are rare for this early in November, but not without precedent. Still, I am highly skeptical about this forecast. From what I have read, there is still too much uncertainty to be able to make any firm predictions. The track of the storm system and its strength seem pretty certain at this time, but the amount of cold air being drawn into the region is the big question mark. While the precipitation, which is expected to start as rain overnight, will likely change to snow early on Friday, snowfall rates will have to be pretty high in order to overcome the warm ground. With all that said, the snow is anticipated to be rather heavy, so some locations could very well see some significant accumulations. If I had to guess, I would say that snowfall totals will show a lot of variation over short distances, as is common in early season storms. Even three or four inches would be more than enough to cause problems, as by now everyone has forgotten how to drive on snowy roads. This afternoon's forecast package should hopefully shed some more light on this developing situation.


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