Slight Risk Today

Update--9:58 p.m.: Another day, another blown severe weather forecast. Storms tried to get going this evening but just couldn't keep it together. One weak storm developed over Vernon County about an hour ago and brought some brief rainfall, but has already moved to the south, and the severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled. At least the evening forecaster at the weather service in La Crosse explained (in an evening forecast discussion) why severe weather didn't develop--low level convergence was not as strong as expected, meaning winds were not coming together in the right way at the surface for storms to develop and keep going for several hours. We can only hope that the next severe weather forecast will be more accurate, but that sure hasn't been the case this year so far.

Update--4:48 p.m.: Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued. In effect until 11:00 p.m.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
435 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 435 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

Update--11:44 a.m.: Severe risk remains the same with the 11:30 a.m. forecast. Someone please explain to me why Vernon County tested their weather sirens on a day when severe weather is actually forecast??

Previous entry: There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms over the entire region today. The most favorable time for severe weather will be between noon and 9 p.m. this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front dropping south out of Minnesota, and conditions are expected to be right for these storms to become severe. The main threats are damaging winds and large hail, with the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes as well. Skies are currently mostly cloudy, which would seem to inhibit severe storms. However, the atmosphere is already quite unstable, and some partial clearing is expected throughout the morning hours, which would add to the instability. According to the National Weather Service, a widespread severe weather event seems possible, but it is far from a done deal. Subsequent forecasts today will seek to clarify and refine just how significant this severe weather risk is. Updates to follow, if necessary.