Thursday, October 18, 2007

Severe Threat Diminishing

The threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon is diminishing, as clouds have kept the temperature from warming enough. However, showers and storms are still expected to develop along a cold front this afternoon, and there is still a possibility that a few storms could be severe, especially if a few breaks develop in the clouds to allow for a little more heating. The better chances for severe thunderstorms are across eastern Wisconsin, where skies have been partly sunny this morning. The moderate risk area has been shifted well south into Illinois, Indiana and adjacent states, where a major outbreak is possible.

Heavy rain overnight has caused the river to rise (again). A flood warning is in effect at Gays Mills (again), where the river is expected to go above flood stage (again). Only minor flooding is forecast, with a crest of less than a foot above flood stage.

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Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Rain & Storms

First post in a long time, but it's worth it.

An unusually strong October storm system is expected to bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to the area starting later today. Rainfall totals may exceed an inch in some places through tomorrow morning. Thursday could be a very active day. The dry slot is expected to rotate northward into Wisconsin tomorrow morning, shutting off the rain. This may allow for some partial clearing and temperatures warming into the 60s. If this happens, thunderstorms will re-develop along the cold front by late morning or early afternoon. While instability isn't expected to be too high, wind shear in the atmosphere will be very strong, so any storms that develop could certainly become severe, and there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over southwestern Wisconsin tomorrow. The greater threat of severe weather is to our south and east. About the southeast one-quarter of Wisconsin is under a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow, including Madison and Milwaukee. The moderate risk also covers parts of lower Michigan and Illinois, and all of Indiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible. Ultimately, the speed of the system, amount of drying that occurs in the morning, and the position of the cold front will all determine where the best chances of severe weather will be. The Storm Prediction Center said in its morning outlook that a widespread, possibly significant severe weather event appears increasingly likely somewhere in the region tomorrow.