What Month?

Had about an inch of rain overnight and having a pretty decent downpour again right now, along with several rumbles of thunder. If it wasn't for all the Christmas decorations I'd sooner think this was late August or early September. By Thursday there should be no mistaking what month it is, as the cold air isn't too far off. Will have to get through some more rain, sleet, snow, maybe even some freezing rain before then. Tomorrow could be a messy day, especially in the afternoon.

Changes

The weather has been very benign since the early snowstorm a few weeks ago. There has been an extended period of unseasonably mild conditions for the past several days, but that is about to come to an abrupt end. A series of storm systems are going to move across the region beginning tonight. Each of these is expected to bring widespread rain showers, with some rumbles of thunder possible as well. The first batch of rain will move though tonight, followed by another later tomorrow and tomorrow night. A cold front will then move through the region later on Tuesday. Some thunderstorms may precede the front, and much colder temperatures and gusty winds will take up residence behind it. By Thursday, high temperatures will likely only be in the 20s. It will be cold enough to snow on Wednesday, but no accumulation is currently expected. Below normal temperatures are expected to persist for several days, meaning it is more than likely time to say a final goodbye to fall.

Snow Advisory

A snow advisory is in effect until 9:00 p.m. tonight for two to four inches of snow. Personally, I think it will be difficult for the snow to accumulate that much here, as the heavy snow band appears to be setting up much more to the north and west. A mix of precipitation is falling right now and should gradually change to snow, but I just don't think we'll see much accumulation. If we do happen to get under a heavy snow band, however, then some higher totals are more likely.

Huh?

Imagine my surprise when I woke up this morning to discover there was a winter storm watch in effect for tomorrow. Last night the forecast was for an inch or two of snow on Friday, and this morning it now calls for three to eight inches. Such snowfall totals are rare for this early in November, but not without precedent. Still, I am highly skeptical about this forecast. From what I have read, there is still too much uncertainty to be able to make any firm predictions. The track of the storm system and its strength seem pretty certain at this time, but the amount of cold air being drawn into the region is the big question mark. While the precipitation, which is expected to start as rain overnight, will likely change to snow early on Friday, snowfall rates will have to be pretty high in order to overcome the warm ground. With all that said, the snow is anticipated to be rather heavy, so some locations could very well see some significant accumulations. If I had to guess, I would say that snowfall totals will show a lot of variation over short distances, as is common in early season storms. Even three or four inches would be more than enough to cause problems, as by now everyone has forgotten how to drive on snowy roads. This afternoon's forecast package should hopefully shed some more light on this developing situation.

It is so obviously November

One doesn't need a calendar to tell what month it is. A look at the weather for the past week and the forecast for the next few days should make it blatantly obvious that it is November. Only in November can the weather go from near record-breaking cold temperatures to near record-breaking warmth a few days later, with snow two days after that. Last Friday morning, it was 11 degrees. Right now, it is 71 degrees. On Friday, a couple inches of snow are predicted. Yes, it is most decidedly November.

October Summary

Average high: 56.8 degrees (4.3 below normal)
Average low: 34.6 degrees (5.5 below normal)
Average monthly temp: 45.7 degrees (4.9 below normal)
Warmest: 85 degrees (October 2nd)
Coldest: 19 degrees (October 24th)
Total rain: 2.11 in. (0.05 below normal)
Total snow: 0.20 in. (normal)
Days with measurable rain: 7
Wettest: 0.86 in. (October 4th)
Days with measurable snow: 2
Snowiest: 0.10 in. (October 12th & 20th)

Average daily temperatures were below normal on 25 of 31 days, or 81% of the month.
With the exception of one-tenth of an inch of snow today, no measurable precipitation has fallen since October 21st.