4th of July Preview

The weather in the days leading up the 4th of July could be rather unsettled. Warm and more humid air is expected to begin flowing into the region by Sunday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s forecast for Monday thru Wednesday. Also, this developing pattern will favor the development of mesoscale convective complexes (a big complex of thunderstorms) somewhere in the northern Plains, and these complexes could then move east and southeast toward Wisconsin. Usually, with this type of pattern, rain and thunderstorms are more likely locally during the overnight and early morning hours, with the daytime hours usually remaining dry, but very warm. These complexes can also be severe sometimes. It will be nearly impossible to pinpoint the timing of these expected storms until about a day before the event, unfortunately.

Activity increasing?

For about the past month the weather has been relatively quiet across the area, at least until yesterday. Temperatures had been rather mild (except for a few days now and then with below normal readings), and precipitation had been sparse. It got a little more active yesterday, as some isolated severe weather occurred in western Wisconsin with mostly minor damage. There was also some heavy rain in spots. This trend has continued today albeit with weaker storms. The only concern today has been heavy rain, but the storms are moving quick enough that flooding won't be a problem. The weather pattern may continue to be more active through the holiday weekend, with a chance for thunderstorms on Saturday and again by late Monday. As of right now, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday, so this will need to be watched.