Early Fireworks

7:57 p.m.: It has already been an eventful evening, with severe thunderstorms and heavy rain moving across Vernon County. The tornado watch has been extended until midnight, and a tornado warning was in effect for a time for the northeastern portion of the county. No tornadoes were observed, but rotation was seen in Valley and trees were down in that area. There was plenty of lightning, and torrential rains. Already 2.19 inches as of 7:45 p.m. and still falling, lightly. Currently a severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for southwestern Vernon County, and more storms are moving southeast out of Minnesota. While severe weather is still possible, this may be transitioning into more of a heavy rain/minor flooding event. An urban and small stream flood advisory is in effect until 10:00 p.m.

12:45 p.m.: The fireworks may start a day early this week, in the form of thunderstorms. A tornado watch is in effect until 8:00 p.m. for most of the region. Storms are currently developing over central Minnesota and are expected to move/expand east and southeast as the day progresses. While isolated tornadoes are possible, large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Conditions are a little more favorable for severe weather over Minnesota, but the threat still exists everywhere. In the meantime, enough breaks have developed in the clouds to produce temperatures in the middle 80s. Dewpoints are increasing rapidly as well, already in the middle to upper 60s, so it feels quite humid. The threat of storms will linger through tonight, but it now appears that tomorrow, the 4th of July, should be rain-free, with seasonable temperatures. Might have to get through some rough stuff first.

And then the heat builds for the weekend.......

High Risk

5:08 p.m.: The severe weather threat appears to be over, and the tornado watch will likely be cancelled in the next hour or so. Severe thunderstorms moved through southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin, resulting in some wind damage, very large hail, and possibly producing a tornado near Bangor. The storms have moved into northeastern Wisconsin, where several tornadoes have been reported. A tornado was reported just south of downtown Wisconsin Rapids, along with softball-sized hail. A tornado watch is in effect for eastern Wisconsin as well, but storms have not developed there yet. Overall the severe weather was not quite as widespread as expected over western Wisconsin, perhaps due to this morning's cloud cover. Another factor may have been the fact that the boundary that the storms formed along moved into the region a little quicker than expected. Still, this was a significant outbreak in areas mainly north of the Kickapoo Valley, but not as bad as feared.

12:40 p.m.: A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10:00 p.m. This is a PDS watch (Particularly Dangerous Situation), which means the threat for severe weather is very high. Destructive tornadoes, hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, and wind gusts up to 80 miles per hour are possible. We remain under a high risk for severe weather, and the threat for tornadoes is slightly higher this afternoon than it was this morning. Thunderstorms are rapidly developing across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, and several warnings have already been issued there. These storms will move north and east toward Wisconsin during the afternoon. The temperature has warmed into the lower 80s and dewpoints are well into the 60s, so the atmosphere is quite unstable. This is a very volatile situation and can change rapidly, so monitor the situation closely as the afternoon progresses and be prepared to seek shelter if these storms approach.

10:08 a.m.: Instead of eroding, the cloudcover has actually increased this morning. This could work to suppress the severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon. However, wind shear remains very high, and dewpoint temperatures have climbed into the middle 60s. Skies are also more clear across parts of Iowa and Minnesota where convective initiation is expected in the next few hours, so the threat for severe weather is still very real.

8:37 a.m.: There is a rare high risk of severe thunderstorms today across all of Wisconsin and adjacent parts of Minnesota and Iowa. All of the parameters for a significant severe weather outbreak still appear to be coming together. It is becoming increasingly warm and humid this morning, with some scattered clouds. Most of Iowa and southern Minnesota is cloud-free at this time, and this clear area is expected to move into Wisconsin as the morning progresses. This will allow the atmosphere to become more unstable. Wind shear values are already high, so thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by early afternoon and then move east. Tornadoes, damaging winds and hail are all possible. There is also a threat for some strong tornadoes and widespread damaging winds, with gusts up to hurricane force possible. There is still some chance that this forecast may be a bust, but it looks more and more like it will be a stormy afternoon across the area.

Ongoing Severe Threat

A tornado watch is currently in effect for about another two hours as thunderstorms continue to move out of Iowa and Illinois into Wisconsin. Tornadoes have apparently caused some rather significant damage north of the Quad Cities, and other tornadoes were reported in northwestern Illinois and Lafayette County in Wisconsin. All is quiet right now but another line of storms is rotating to the north and northwest into southwest Wisconsin. There could be a severe weather threat with this line as it moves though but at this time most of the storms are rather weak. This unsettled weather pattern will remain in place through next week, with nearly daily chances for thunderstorms.

Watching for storms

7:17 p.m.: A line of storms has quickly moved through the area, prompting several tornado warnings for Vernon, Richland, and Grant counties. No confirmed tornadoes or damage yet. This was a very complex situation and any tornadoes or funnel clouds that may have formed would likely have been weak and short-lived, and may have even gone unnoticed. The severe weather threat should now be over, but rain could continue for a few more hours.

5:58 p.m.: Tornado Watch in effect this evening. A line of storms is moving north-northeast out of Iowa. Large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain will be the biggest threats, but there is still a chance for an isolated tornado or two.

Link to tornado watch: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0102.html

12:21 p.m.: Am keeping an eye on the weather picture this afternoon for the potential for some strong/severe storms. Isolated storms are developing across the area right now. A more concentrated area of storms is expected to develop over Iowa as the afternoon progresses, and this is where the greatest threat for severe weather will be. However, a warm front is expected to be located across the region by later this afternoon, and it is not out of the question that severe storms could develop along it as well. Overall, there will be a very narrow window for severe weather development, generally between 3 and 10 p.m. If all the conditions come together, severe storms could be more widespread than currently predicted. I will eagerly await the 3:00 p.m. severe weather outlook.

Severe Day

8:19 p.m.: Tornado watch cancelled. Forecast was a major bust, again.

6:54 p.m.: This year's severe weather season appears to be picking up where last season left off: wrong. Today's "outbreak" hasn't been nearly as widespread as expected, with only a few reports of severe weather mostly across west central Wisconsin. Some storms may be trying to get going just to the west of the Mississippi River but unless they do so in a hurry it looks like our severe weather threat is rapidly diminishing. But, the watch continues to be in effect, as there is still a potential for storms to turn severe quite rapidly before they completely clear the area.

3:45 p.m.: Tornado Watch is in effect until 10:00 p.m. tonight. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop over southern and eastern Minnesota and are expected to intensify and move into Wisconsin in the next several hours. It may take a couple more hours before things really get going. Otherwise, it has been a nearly perfect weather day, with record high temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies (that are now becoming partly cloudy) and some rather gusty winds.

Link to Tornado Watch: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0075.html

10:15 a.m.: There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Tornadoes, hail and damaging winds are all possible. The greatest threat time will be between 3:00 and 10:00 p.m. More to follow, if necessary.