Done with Winter?

Depending on your location, you either got a lot of snow yesterday, or hardly any. Here in La Farge, I figure we received around 6 or 7 inches, which is surprisingly high considering how much melting occurred during the storm. Most valley locations saw three inches or less, while higher elevations got as much as 6 to 9 inches. The melting has continued today, and the snow will probably be gone by the end of the weekend.

Hopefully this was winter's last gasp. I am most definitely ready for some warmer temperatures and sunshine. Fortunately, little precipitation is in the forecast for the next several days, and temperatures may warm into the 60s by next week. I'd like to say we are done with winter, but I also remember that it snowed in May the last two years.

Today was the day for the annual statewide tornado drill. This is the first time I can recall snow being on the ground at the same time.

Melting away

Generally two to six inches of snow has fallen across the region today, and the winter storm warning remains in effect. If it was about 3 degrees colder, there would be a lot more snow on the ground than their actually is. My best guess is that about 4 to 5 inches has fallen here in the valley, but it has been melting almost as fast as it has been falling. This is common in an April snowstorm. Areas on the ridges, where it is a few degrees colder, have received a lot more snow than the valleys. According to the National Weather Service, 7 inches has accumulated in Viroqua, while only 1.5 inches has fallen in Chaseburg. This is a classic spring snowstorm in which more snow has actually fallen than it appears. There is currently a lull in the snow here, but it should be around periodically for the rest of the day. Most areas will probably be on the low end of the projected accumulations, but overall this was a pretty accurate forecast, given how difficult it is to predict these April storms.

Good news: it now appears that the storm for this weekend will stay well to our south, so we will be lucky if we get any precipitation out of it. And it might warm up next week...

Up in the air

Update--3:00 p.m.: The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for the potential of 5 to 8 inches of snow. The heaviest amounts are supposed to be north and east of a line from Alma to Richland Center. Winter storm watches are also in effect for adjacent areas of western and central Wisconsin. There is some concern that the river valleys will be warm enough that the snow may change to rain at times, and if this happens accumulations in those areas will be much lower.

Morning entry: Tomorrow's forecast is still up in the air (literally), with both rain and snow possible. The computer forecast models have done a horrible job with this system, so what we actually will get is anyone's guess. The most likely scenario, at least right now, would be a mix of rain and snow with minor accumulations. Of course, this could all change with the next run of the models.

Perhaps of more interest now is the potential for a much stronger storm Friday and Saturday. If the current forecast holds true, we could be in for a significant amount of precipitation. Whether that will be rain or snow is unclear.

Snow again?

It is appearing increasingly likely that a late-season winter storm is taking aim on the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty, but it looks like accumulating snow will occur, especially Tuesday night through Wednesday as a potent storm system passes by to the south. Too early to make any prediction on accumulations, as the exact track of the storm will have a significant impact on that. Dry air ahead of the storm (currently in place) and a relatively warm ground will also impact snowfall totals. A few days ago this was looking to be a mostly rain event, but now it looks like it should be mostly, if not all, snow. Need to watch this one carefully during the next few days. The forecast can (and will) change between now and the time the storm arrives, so we could still end up getting nothing, but at this time accumulating snow is a pretty safe bet. Ironically, this coming week is Severe Weather Awareness Week. By contrast, during Winter Weather Awareness Week in November of 2005, there was severe weather in parts of the region.

Was it really only two weeks ago that we had record highs???

Blizzard pt. 2

Part two of the blizzard of '07 resulted in several more inches of snow last night and early this morning. It is always hard to get an accurate snowfall measurement during a blizzard due to the considerable blowing and drifting that occurs, but the textbook rule is to take three separate measurements and get the average. Doing this, I figure we got 10.5 inches during the second round of the storm. This, combined with the 7.5 inches from round one, plus the two inches of fluffy snow that accumulated this afternoon, results in a storm total of 20 inches. 20 inches! Definitely one of the most significant blizzards of all time for the area (although, admittedly, it would be more significant if there hadn't been such a long lull between the two precip episodes). Storm total accumulations generally ranged from one to two feet across the region, with a few isolated higher amounts. Winds have died off somewhat, but blowing and drifting is likely still a problem on the ridges. Some very light snow showers or flurries should persist through Monday, with little (if any) accumulation.

Now forecasters can turn their attention to the storm for later this week, which is looking more interesting all the time. Some of the models are indicating a more southerly track, which would result in more snow. The current forecast carries a chance for rain or snow, but the bottom line is that a significant amount of either would not be good. Heavy rain could lead to some serious melting issues, resulting in flooding problems, while another bout of significant snow would add to the existing snowpack and increase the threat of flooding in the future. Once again, it will be an interesting weather week.

Blizzard of '07

February certainly has been a month of extreme weather. First we had to deal with one of the longest-lasting cold snaps in recent years, and now we are in the midst of the area's first true blizzard in over a decade. Six to twelve inches of snow fell last night, and round two has now begun. The National Weather Service issued a blizzard warning earlier this evening as very strong winds (gusting to 40 miles per hour) are expected to create white-out conditions through at least tomorrow afternoon. It is snowing quite heavily in the valley right now. Visibility is quite low, but I'm sure it is much worse on the surrounding ridge tops. The sky has that distinctive orange-pink tinge it always has during heavy snow, and an occasional gust of wind really swirls the flakes around. There was some thundersnow reported around the region during last night's snow, which enhanced the snowfall rates. No thunder locally tonight yet, but I have read reports of cloud-to-ground lightning this evening in the Madison and Janesville areas (I am hoping this makes its way west to the Kickapoo Valley; last night was the first time I had ever heard thunder during a snowstorm, and I would like to experience more of this rare phenomenon!). I may post some pictures of the storm tomorrow, if I can figure out how to do it.

Side note: Another strong system looks to impact the area by Thursday. Could be more rain than snow, but I don't think many forecasters want to deal with this storm yet, as it has gotten very little mention in the area forecast discussions so far. One storm at a time...